Win at the Dog Track with Eb

Have you ever thought about how one little thing can change your life? Maybe you stopped to let someone cross instead of speeding up and making them wait a minute. Maybe they were elderly and walked slowly and you sat there for five minutes, wishing you hadn’t stopped. And then, maybe you get down the road to where a bad accident has just happened and you realize that - if you hadn’t stopped to let that old man cross the street - you would have been the guy the paramedics are trying to get out of the car with the jaws of life.

Sometimes, when little things affect our lives, they aren’t as dramatic as accidents we miss or pianos falling on our heads out of 10th floor windows. Sometimes at the dog track though, little things can affect whether we go home winners or losers. The worst thing is that we might not even realize that it’s happening, so we just keep losing and wondering why.

Other people can be a big distraction at the dog track. Whether it’s friends who keep talking when you’re trying to handicap or strangers who yell and swear and carry on when they lose, people can certainly take our mind off our handicapping. I once bet the wrong track because I was so distracted by a father who was yelling his head off at his three kids, who were running around and spilling their drinks all over the floor and other people.

Friends are wonderful things to have, but even good friends can be a pain if they push you to bet a dog they like or try to discourage you from betting a dog that you like. Probably the worst distraction from people at the track are the negative vibes that some people put out. You know, the people who are always complaining that the races are rigged, that they never win and that it doesn’t do any good to handicap because they don’t have any luck anyhow.

Somehow, all that negative karma just clouds my mind and I can’t think straight until I move away from them. My feeling is that if you’re negative, you’ll attract negative luck and talk yourself right into losing. I’m not a Pollyanna, but I try to keep a positive attitude both at the track and in life in general. If you think you can’t win and are completely negative about the dog track, why in the world would you go there in the first place? And what’s more, why would anyone bet if they don’t think they can win? That just doesn’t make sense.

Outside of people, there are plenty of other distractions. Drinking and eating can get in the way of handicapping, watching the races and keeping track of your bets. I eat before I go to the track and rarely drink anything other than one or two cups of coffee while I’m there.

Carrying a bunch of stuff with you that you have to keep track of can take your mind off what’s going on and at the very least, it makes it harder to get up and bet. You either have to carry it with you or leave it where you’re sitting and most people don’t like to leave their stuff behind. I’ve seen people juggling coolers and mini-TVs, even laptops, as they tried to make a bet. Heck, they could hardly find their program, never mind handicap it.

Kids are such a distraction that I won’t even go into it, except to say that I only bring mine to the track when we’re on vacation and I want to give my spouse a break. The day that I bring them, I don’t plan any heavy betting. My feeling about kids is that - when they’re with you - they need your attention and it isn’t fair to them to ignore them while you do something else.

There’s so much going on at the track. There are TV screens everywhere with replays, odds, horse races, other sports events and even news and weather. When I started going to dog tracks, the only screens showed replays. There were no simulcasts. No betting on horse races at dog tracks. No card rooms, slot machines or electronic machines of any kind.

We went to the dog track to bet on ten live races and we paid attention to those races. In some ways, it was a lot easier in those days. Nowadays, it’s hard to find a quiet place to go over your program or even think in peace. So far, I’ve been able to find a place like that at most tracks, but as the live races diminish in importance and electronics and screens take over, they’re becoming harder to find.

If you really want to avoid distractions at the dog track, I suggest that you go alone or with a friend who is as serious about winning at the track as you are. Someone with a positive attitude who doesn’t have to talk every minute. Then, especially if there are no live races that day, go outside and sit.

I do that all the time and sometimes people stop me at the door to tell me that there’s no live racing that day. They always look confused when I tell them that I know there’s no live racing, but I want to sit outside anyhow. Apparently, I’m in the minority when it comes to wanting a quiet place to think. I often wonder if this is why 90% of the people who go to the track lose. Interesting question, isn’t it?

The systems I use to pick winners at the dog track are The Two Key Trifecta System and The Marks Method.

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.

“This dog is due.” How many times have you heard someone say that at the track? Have you ever really thought about what that means? Does it mean the dog should run in the money in this race? If so, why? What makes a dog due? This past week, I had a reason to ponder this “due dog” thing after it cost me some money.

For family reasons, I spend the summer in a state that doesn’t have a greyhound track. Luckily, the next state over has several so I drive there regularly. Sometimes I go for the day, but from time to time, I stay for several days at a time. Recently, I spent a week soaking up the atmosphere and putting down bets at one of my favorite tracks. I made some money and had a good time and, as usual, I learned something.

On the second day, I was sitting at the little table in my motel room, drinking a coffee and handicapping my program for that day. In the third race, which was a D race, there was a dog who caught my eye. He was dropping down from C and had run as far up as A in his career. He had early speed in a couple of his races and his quiniela percentage was a decent 33%.

Being in the quiniela in one out of three races is very good for a dog in C, so I figured the odds would be very low on this dog. I circled him for one of my quiniela box dogs, finished handicapping and went to the track.

When the race came up, the dog wasn’t the favorite. As a matter of fact, he was at pretty long odds and stayed there until just before the race went off. Now, I don’t usually make side bets after I’ve bet my usual four-dog quiniela box, but I was on vacation and ahead, so I went up and bet this dog to win and place. My reasoning was that he had a record of coming in every third race and he hadn’t come in the money for six races, so he was due.

What was I thinking? He ran fifth and that was only because the other three dogs were having trouble with their walkers and canes. (Little humor there.) Like many a punter I’d heard before, I heard myself saying those words, “But he was due! How could he not come in?”

Where I went wrong with this whole “due” theory is where many a bettor has gone wrong. Percentages are wonderful things to know, but you have to keep in mind that they’re just indicators, not written in stone. For instance, if a dog runs 100 races and runs in the money in half of them, he has a trifecta percentage of 50%.

So, if the dog runs a race and doesn’t come in the money, he should be in the money in the next race, right? Wrong. He could run 50 races and not be in the money and then run 50 races where he is in the money. Or he could run 25 races in the money and 25 out of the money, then 25 in and 25 out. Or, what’s more likely, he can run a couple of races in the money, then run out of the money for one or more races, then run in the money again for a race or two.

The thing with percentages and probability is that a probability of 1 out of 2 just means that the dog has averaged out to being in the money in half of the races that he’s run to this point in the season. There are two variables here. One is that this is a record of the past, not a prediction of the future. The second is that, even if he does continue to be in the money in 1 out of 2 races, that doesn’t mean that he’ll do it in consecutive races.

He might win a race, come in 2nd in his next race and then run out of the money for four races before he’s in the quiniela or trifecta again. There’s really no such thing as a dog who’s “due” even if his record is 100% in the money, because this race is a whole ‘nother thing.

There’s another well-known dog track saying, “Woulda, coulda, shoulda.” Well, I woulda been $4 richer, if I coulda talked myself out of betting on a dog just because he looked like he shoulda come in. If you’re losing money on dogs who don’t deliver, you need The Two Key Trifecta System and The Marks Method.

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.