There’s a lot of information to consider when you handicap a harness program. We all have our different techniques, but we probably all look at some of the same things. Speed, times – both final and fractional, post position, driver and trainer stats, class of the race and of the horses in the race, equipment being added or taken away. There’s a lot to cover.
Then, after you’ve sorted all that out, there are other things. I was looking at a Pocono program the other day. In one of the races, there were a lot of things going on. Driver changes, some of which made sense and some of which didn’t. Two horses coming from qualifying races because they shipped in from other tracks.
There was one horse that had all 60′s for class ratings, but had suddenly popped an 81 two races back and I couldn’t figure out a reason for it. The track wasn’t sloppy; it was fast in that race. There was no reason for it that I could see, unless it was just a mistake on the chart writer’s part.
There were good horses in bad post positions and bad horses in good post positions. The 2-1 morning line favorite was a horse that rarely won, but placed about half the time. And it was in a lousy post position on the outside, where it hadn’t shown anything in the races I could see.
I wondered if maybe it had won a race from the outside and thought about looking it up, but then I came to my senses. I realized that there was just too many variables in this race. I also realized that I was wasting my time trying to handicap it, instead of passing it by and going on to another race that I could handicap.
It’s easy to get bogged down when you’re handicapping. Until you really look at a race, you can’t tell if it’s one you want to play or not. On the other hand, there are some races that you can just scan, and know that they’re races you should skip. For instance, races that have more than one or two first time starters or horses coming from qualifying races, are ones that I’ve learned to skip.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve ignored a first time starter or qualifier only to have them nip my horse at the wire. I’ll sometimes take a chance if there’s only one in a race. But more than that makes the race unplayable, as far as I’m concerned. I only have so much time and energy, so I save it for the races I really think I can make money on.
Of course, some of us are better than others at figuring out variables. For instance, you may know that a certain trainer has a very good record with first time starters, or that he can get a horse ready to win with just a qualifier. If that’s the case, you could handicap a race that I – without that knowledge – couldn’t.
If you follow individual horses, drivers or trainers, you might be able to handicap a race, because of your faith in them, although that’s never worked for me. I guess the bottom line is that we all have our strengths and weaknesses, when it comes to handicapping. My strength doesn’t happen to be figuring out races with too many variables. For me, they’re like jigsaw puzzles with missing pieces. I stick with the puzzles that have all the pieces, because I can solve them enough of the time to make a profit.