When my friend, Roger, comes and sits down next to me at the track, I know what he’s going to say before he says it. He opens his program, bobs his head up and down as he scans the first race and says, “You know who’s gonna win this race?”
“No, Roger,” I always say, “Who’s gonna win this race?”
He’ll give me the dog’s number or name and when I ask him why, he’ll always say, “He’s the speed dog.”
Roger’s only handicapping angle is speed. He looks for the dog with the fastest times in its last couple of races and plays it to win. Sometimes, it does. A lot of times, it doesn’t. Speed, by itself, isn’t a sure fire way to tell if a dog will cross the finish line first. Speed helps, of course, but it rarely is the only handicapping factor that matters in a race.
There are a lot of “Rogers” at the greyhound track, people who only look at one thing. Maybe it’s speed, but it could also be class or which kennel the dog is from or any number of other things. This is not the best way to handicap a dog race, although I’m glad that so many people do handicap this way.
It makes it easier for those of us who look at more than just one handicapping factor. Even if a dog is a speedball who has faster times than any of the other dogs in a race, it doesn’t mean you can stop handicapping right there and put money on it. For one thing, if a dog is that much of a standout because of its times, everyone will notice and it will be bet down to nothing.
In this situation, I look for the dog that might be able to beat this dog with strategy or racing luck instead of raw speed. I look at all the dogs and all the factors that will be in play in this race. If I decide that the speedball is the most logical dog to win the race, and if its odds are too low, I just pass the race. If I think another dog has a shot at beating this dog to the wire with a little racing luck, I play that dog to win and place, if it’s at long enough odds to justify a bet.
No matter what, even if there’s a standout in a race, I never, ever, handicap on one factor. It seems really lazy to me, just to scan a race, pick out one really obvious thing and call it a wrap. It would be really nice if handicapping races was that easy, but it isn’t. The best handicapping method is the kind that looks at a race from every angle, not just one.