This is an article from Book 3 in the Greyhound Handicapping Series Books 1-6 available in paperback or on Kindle. You can read all 6 books for free with Kindle Unlimited and each book has 3 bonus mini systems.
If you can narrow the contenders in a race down to 3 or 4 dogs, you have a good chance of making money at the dog track. By betting a trifecta key or wheel with these dogs, you cover enough combinations to maximize your win ratio and minimize your risk. Often though, the hardest part of this is choosing which dog to put 1st and 2nd.
Many times, there are two dogs that are pretty evenly matched as far as statistics go. Their win, quiniela and trifecta percentages are almost even. Neither of them has enough of a difference between stats to help you choose one over the other, but if you play both of them, it’s too much money.
When I’m in this situation, I use a simple rule to pick the dog that I think has the best shot at hitting the wire first. I look for the dog that breaks and pick it over the dog that closes to win. Even if both dogs have exactly the same percentage of winning and placing, I know that my method is the right way to go. Why?
Well, if you look at almost any track’s statistics, you’ll find that dogs that break and lead win more often than dogs that close at the end of the race, after running with or behind the pack. If you think about it, it only makes sense.
Dogs that get out first avoid trouble. Dogs that close have to contend with traffic and other dogs that are fading in the stretch. They have many more chances to get into trouble, and if they don’t close quite quickly enough, they end up third or fourth and there goes your trifecta if you have them for 1st or 2nd.
So, next time you put together your trifecta key bet, look at percentages first, but then look at who breaks and who closes. Being aware of this can save you a lot of headaches and a lot of money.