In almost every program, for almost every dog, there are six past performance races. This is valuable information, but only if you use it to its best advantage. If, like most people, you just scan the lines, looking for wins and seconds, you’re missing the boat entirely. Looking for positive factors is human nature, but it’s not the best way to handicap.

Of course, we tend to notice dogs that have recently done well, because it might mean that they’re in form and will run well in the current race. But before you dismiss the dogs who don’t seem to have done much in their last few races, take a closer look and make sure that you’re not overlooking a contender.

For instance, if a dog hasn’t run in the money in its last few races, take a closer look at those races instead of just dismissing it as out of form. See if you can find a reason that might explain its lackluster performance. The first thing I do is look at its post position compared to its running style in those races. Many times, this explains several races where a dog looks  worse than it really is.

If the dog has been in post positions that don’t match its post preference and running style, I next look to see if it did anything, no matter how miniscule, to show me that it tried in those races. Did it break a little? Did it close a little? Did it do better in the last couple of races than it did in the first races?

What do its comment lines tell me about the dogs past performances? If I see comments like, “blocked, tried” or “good effort” or anything positive, I give the dog a closer look. If the chartwriter saw something worth noting about the way the dog ran, it was probably putting some effort into trying to win. Even if it wasn’t in the money, it was in the running.

Next, I look at the race it’s in now. Does it have a better post position? Will it have room and position to run in its preferred style? Does it have some advantage in this race that it hasn’t had in its previous few races that makes it a better bet than it looks like being? Keep in mind that the best odds are on dogs that don’t look as good as they are.

Anyone can pick a winner that is obviously a top dog. But very few people can spot a dog before the crowd realizes that it’s better than it looks. Don’t just dismiss dogs with bad lines. Look further into their past situations and decide whether they’re in a better situation today.