Picking Long Shots in Horse Racing Requires Knowledge of These Factors
By Bill Peterson
Playing favorites to make a consistent profit at horse racing handicapping is a long hard grind and rarely works out well. In the long run it is usually a few big scores that will make a horse player successful in a month or even a year. Playing longshots is the way to make those big scores, but it can be a very time consuming and a painful experience that tests your patience.
The reason is that the frequency of hits is so small if you don’t know how to weed out the good ones from the bad bets. There are indicators that will show you that a horse is ready to make a big change in its racing results, but you must apply those factors as filters to wade your way through the hundreds of longshots and dozens of races you face everyday, not an easy task to be sure.
The biggest factor in computing the value of a long shot is factoring the risk against the actual reward, of course in this case I mean the payoff. The odds and field size are a good place to start when factoring risk to reward in a horse race. Simply put, the more horses in a race, the lower the chances of any one of those horses being the winner. For instance, in a ten horse field a horse has a 10% chance of winning without factoring in any other handicapping angles. In a five horse field a horse has a 20% chance of winning, in other words, double the chance of winning.
Without thinking about any other handicapping factors, ask yourself this, “In which race would you rather bet a horse going off at 7-1?” The answer is obvious. The shorter the field and the greater the odds is a first consideration in finding a good longhsot bet.
In a field of 12 horses I can’t consider a horse going off at 7-1 to be a longshot, but in a five horse field I do consider that same horse at those odds as a possible long priced bet. It all comes down to realizing that it is not only the horse’s own conditions that make it a good bet when shopping for price, but also the other conditions of the race. Field size is just one of them. Therefore, when picking a long shot to bet on, I always use a few simple angles to locate a good bet.
Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill’s Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com – Bill has been around Horseracing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping Bill’s handicapping store.
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