So far this week, I’ve only had one winner out of three plays. It was a spot play in the 5th race at Mardis Gras on Saturday afternoon, the 7th. It was the only dog I played on that program and I played it to win and place. And you’re probably asking yourself why I’m telling you about one win.
Well, when Clone Me crossed the finish line first, she was at odds of 34.70. As a matter of fact, she paid $71.40 to win and $82.80 to place. The quinella, which I didn’t play, was $83.80. I haven’t played anything else since then, and I may not play another thing for another week, if I don’t see another good spot play like Clone Me.
This is the reason I don’t enter tournaments or play every day. I used to play several times a week, but then I began to play more and more spot plays. Eventually, I realized that they don’t come along every day. At that point, I had to make a decision. Did I want to play quantity or quality?
Did I want to handicap almost every race on the program and force myself to find a pick? Or did I want to be super selective and hold out for the longshots that pay high prices when they come in? It’s a decision that every handicapper has to make sooner or later. It comes down to your handicapping style, your bankroll, and your patience.
I sit with people who bet almost every race and they win enough to go home with a profit on most programs. They love the action and they’d die from boredom if they bet the rare longshot like I do. And that’s okay. They may make more money than I do over the long run. I don’t know. They seem happy with their results and I’m happy with mine, and I guess that’s all that matters.
Getting back to Clone Me, and the reason I played a dog who had come in 7th by 9 lengths in its last race… Well, for one thing, she was in the money in 3 out of her 6 races at MG with one win and two places. She had won her next to last race. And in the races where she didn’t come in, she had run into trouble, she didn’t lose for lack of trying.
And the biggest reason I bet this longshot is because she had done something in her last race that none of the other dogs in the race had done in their last race. It’s something that 99% of handicappers wouldn’t consider significant, but I’ve learned that it’s often a sign that a longshot is a good bet, as long as they have at least a couple of other things going for them. Can you figure out what it is? I’ll give you a hint, it happened early in the race.
