Greyhound Handicapping: How Important Is Post Position?
It doesn’t take too long for greyhound handicappers to figure out that the best post positions at almost all dog tracks are the 1, 2, 3, and 8 boxes. If you look at the statistics in the program, you’ll find that the three inside positions and the far outside one account for way more dogs in the money than the other boxes. So, why don’t we just bet 1238 quiniela and trifecta boxes and clean up at the track?
Well, some people DO bet those numbers, but I don’t think it works too well. For one thing, everyone knows about it, so when they come in, they don’t pay that well. For another thing, even though dogs come in more often from those boxes, they still come in from the other boxes too. There’s no way of telling in any particular race whether the winner will come from the golden boxes or from one of the other ones.
My take on post position is that it’s more important whether a dog likes the post position it’s in and whether it’s moving to a more favorable post position or a less favorable one - for that individual dog’s running style. To my mind, post position isn’t a static thing, it’s a dynamic.
Let’s say there’s a dog - we’ll call him Sparky - who’s had six races in inside boxes and hasn’t been in the money in one of them. Today, he’s in the four box. You look at all of Sparky’s previous races (read about how to do that in Winning With Connections) and see that he’s a solid midtrack runner with early speed. That might explain why he’s had trouble in almost all of the races he ran from inside boxes.
When Sparky breaks and zips over to the middle of the track, he’s probably had breakers beside him, some of whom were probably trying to get inside. They bumped Sparky and he bumped them and that explains why he didn’t come in. But now, Sparky is right where he wants to be and probably pretty dadblamed sick of getting knocked around. This time, things will be different.
To me, this situation is ripe for a betting opportunity. Sparky looks lousy to the bettors who are only looking at the six races they can see in the program. But I know from looking at Greyhound Data that he’s had some very good races from the middle of the track, so I have good reason to think that he’s a contender in this race due to his favorable post position. I also know that if he’s ever going to do anything, it will be in this race or one like it. And I know from the past performances that Sparky DOES come in.
If you want to check out how often this kind of situation happens, look over your old programs for dogs who win and pay well. Many times, it’s because they looked lousy in their last six races because they weren’t in the post position they wanted to be in. Pay particular attention to dogs who have been in outside boxes and then move to the 1 or 2 box. Just remember that post position is just one of the things you need to consider when you’re handicapping races. Improve your odds with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System.
Tags: greyhound handicapping, post position, winning at the dog track
