Don’t Fall for This Losing Bet

If I had a nickel for every time I’ve seen the crowd make this mistake, I wouldn’t have to bet on dogs any more, that’s for sure. It happened again just the other day at Wheeling Downs. You might have been there or seen it on a simulcast at your local track.

There’s a young dog there who’s burning up the track and he was in an A race. Now, he’s moved right up through the grades, winning every one of his races from M through B. He’s definitely a very good pup and may well be a future superstar. He’s out of good parents and his littermates are doing well also.

I’m not taking anything away from this dog when I tell you why I didn’t bet him in that A race. Yes, he’s good. Yes, he was in the 8 box, which is a good post position at Wheeling Downs. And, yes, I thought he had at least a chance of running in the money. I thought he might even win. So why didn’t I bet him?

Well, he was listed at 3-1 in the morning line. When the odds first came up, he was at 5-2. But almost right away, someone dumped a ton of money on him and he went to really low odds that got even more ridiculously lower as time went on.

By the time the race went off, this young puppy, who had never run in Grade A before, was at 1-9. The next best favorite, the 1 who had just come out of AA, was at 4-1. I couldn’t believe it! The 1 box is hot at Wheeling, always has been, so I went to the window and bet on the 1 to win and place.

Well, I was very glad I had because when the race went off, the 7, an older female who has run in stakes races, looked over at that young puppy and veered right over in front of him and knocked him out of the running. She came in fourth and I swear she had a very self-satisfied look on her face. (Older females can be pretty overbearing with young male dogs who try to outbreak them.)

The 1 paid $10 to win and $6.20 to place and the 2 was second at 5-1, so the quiniela was large. I should have bet it, but I didn’t want to risk too much on that race, because of the uncertainty of how the young dog would make out.

I’ll give the young dog credit, he came back to take 3rd and I’ll be watching his future career with interest. He has heart and stamina and when you combine that with youthful energy and speed, you have the makings of a winner. That’s for sure.

But it’s also for the future. In that race, he was outclassed, outgunned and outrun, just like I figured he would be. No untried puppy should be at odds lower than 5-2 in my estimation. When I see one that is, I pass it by and you might want to consider doing the same thing.

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