At the dog track, favorites win about 30% of their races. That sounds pretty good, but studies show that they pay poorly, so they only pay back about 84 cents of each dollar you bet on them to win over time. This is NOT the way to win at the dog track, is it?
On the other hand, if you bet only longshots, you’ll lose even more money. They only pay about 70 cents out of the dollar you bet on them to win. Obviously, betting only longshots or only favorites is a losing proposition. This is why 90% of the people who bet on dog races lose.
So, what do the other 10% do differently that makes them winners? Well, they probably have a pretty good handicapping system, for one thing. One that takes many factors into consideration instead of just betting the odds on the toteboard.
Also, they don’t bet with the crowd on favorites or against the crowd on longshots. They bet on what THEY think will come in, no matter what the odds are on the dog. (Except in some rare cases when they know the dog won’t pay off if it comes in because it’s at such low odds.)
Dogs don’t come in because the crowd likes them. Dogs come in because they’re better than the other dogs they’re racing against. Many times, the crowd notices only some of the factors that affect how the race is run and give that factor too much significance.
For instance, many times the favorite is a dog with early speed. Early speed is good, but it takes more than that to win a race. If the dog fades or another dog is a great closer, early speed can get lost in the dust. That’s why the ten percent of the crowd who win go past looking for early speed and look for the other factors that tell them what to bet on.
Remember, beyond whether a dog is a favorite or a longshot, you have to have a betting strategy and good handicapping skills to make money on either type of bet. Just betting favorites or just betting longshots doesn’t pay off over the long haul. You have to bet the dog, not the odds.