Winning At the Dog Track: Analysis or Paralysis?
Thursday, July 31st, 2008I’ve often talked about how I think it’s important to take enough time to go over your program. It seems to me that too many people dash in just before the first race goes off, grab a program and try to handicap 8 dogs in 2 minutes. I don’t think it can be done. You’ll end up picking something and then realizing as the race goes off that you missed something that would have made you bet on something else.
Of course, the opposite of this is going over and over your program, changing your mind over and over again. If you take too much time to examine every feature of every dog in minute detail, you can get stuck.
You see something that makes you think that Dog A is a contender, but then you see something even better about Dog B and throw out Dog A. Then you spy Dog C’s last race where it ran a far better time than any of the other dogs in this race and you wonder why you even considered Dog A and Dog B. This is an illustration of an old saying, “Over-analysis leads to paralysis.”
It’s true. Analyzing races is a good thing, until you get to the point where you’re over-analyzing, second-guessing and going over the same old thing with a fine-tooth comb.When that happens, it’s easy to lose your perspective.
Instead of weighing different qualities as more important or less important, you start giving equal weight to everything. While it makes sense to ask yourself if the dog has a good post position, it doesn’t make sense to go back over the dog’s last 200 races to see what percentage of races it’s won from this post position.
Neither is it a good idea to stare at each dog as it’s led out to the box, looking for signs that it’s more likely to win than the other dogs from the position of its tail, ears or by how the leadout holds the lead or pets the dog or talks to it.
You can drive yourself crazy trying to look at every little piddling detail that could possibly make a difference between winning and losing, but there’s no way to tell if what you’re looking at has any relationship to whether the dog is ready to win.
I think that what you should be looking at are the basic factors that good handicappers use and the not-so-obvious factors that serious handicappers discover that really make a difference. If you haven’t discovered these factors for yourself, then you may need help uncovering them. That’s where a good handicapping book or system comes into play.
Improve your handicapping skills with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System
You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.


