Archive for July, 2008

Winning At the Dog Track: Analysis or Paralysis?

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

I’ve often talked about how I think it’s important to take enough time to go over your program. It seems to me that too many people dash in just before the first race goes off, grab a program and try to handicap 8 dogs in 2 minutes. I don’t think it can be done. You’ll end up picking something and then realizing as the race goes off that you missed something that would have made you bet on something else.

Of course, the opposite of this is going over and over your program, changing your mind over and over again. If you take too much time to examine every feature of every dog in minute detail, you can get stuck.

You see something that makes you think that Dog A is a contender, but then you see something even better about Dog B and throw out Dog A. Then you spy Dog C’s last race where it ran a far better time than any of the other dogs in this race and you wonder why you even considered Dog A and Dog B. This is an illustration of an old saying, “Over-analysis leads to paralysis.”

It’s true. Analyzing races is a good thing, until you get to the point where you’re over-analyzing, second-guessing and going over the same old thing with a fine-tooth comb.When that happens, it’s easy to lose your perspective.

Instead of weighing different qualities as more important or less important, you start giving equal weight to everything. While it makes sense to ask yourself if the dog has a good post position, it doesn’t make sense to go back over the dog’s last 200 races to see what percentage of races it’s won from this post position.

Neither is it a good idea to stare at each dog as it’s led out to the box, looking for signs that it’s more likely to win than the other dogs from the position of its tail, ears or by how the leadout holds the lead or pets the dog or talks to it.

You can drive yourself crazy trying to look at every little piddling detail that could possibly make a difference between winning and losing, but there’s no way to tell if what you’re looking at has any relationship to whether the dog is ready to win.

I think that what you should be looking at are the basic factors that good handicappers use and the not-so-obvious factors that serious handicappers discover that really make a difference. If you haven’t discovered these factors for yourself, then you may need help uncovering them. That’s where a good handicapping book or system comes into play.

Improve your handicapping skills with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.

Greyhound Handicapping: How To Break a Losing Streak

Wednesday, July 30th, 2008

We’ve all had them. Losing streaks are pretty depressing, especially if you don’t know why you’re having one. All of a sudden, you stop hitting winners and start picking losers. It seems like the universe is laughing at you by making your dogs fall down on the turn, get bumped on the break and fade right before the finish line. As a friend of mine once said, “It’s heart-rendering.”

I’ve had plenty of losing streaks and I get just as bummed out as the next person, although I shouldn’t after all these years. I don’t always practice what I preach, so sometimes it takes a while for the fact that I’m on a losing streak to filter through my thick head.

But when it does, I try to remember what’s helped me in the past when I’ve had losing streaks. The first thing I check is whether I’m in balance. That might sound kind of Zen-ee or Woo Woo, but it’s not. I’m talking about being balanced when I handicap, not about tying myself in knots and chanting Ommm.

You don’t have to be a Zen guru to realize that there is a natural balance in the world and when you get out of balance, things don’t work the way they should. One of the ways that I get out of balance and start losing is when I get oppositional. I start picking dogs, not because I think they’re good dogs, but because the other bettors or my friends DON’T think they’re good.

I get to the point where I’m not betting favorites at all, because they’re favorites. Everyone else likes them, so I’m not gonna. Nyah, nyah, nah nyah nah! Yeah, like a little kid, I’m just being ornery and like a little kid, I’m mostly hurting myself. When I realize this, I give myself a good talking to and make sure that I go back to handicapping the way I always do.

After I get myself straightened out, if I pick a dog that’s a favorite, I play it, even if I think the rest of the crowd likes it. I don’t give it a miss because it’s a crowd pick. And likewise with longshots. Some of my worst losing streaks were because I got burned by a couple of longshots that looked really good, but didn’t come in. So for awhile, I wouldn’t bet a longshot if you paid me.

When I do this, I miss a lot of winners. Because of the way I handicap, I often pick dogs that go off at long odds but which are good bets. So if I don’t include them in my boxes and keys, I miss quinielas and trifectas. This kind of losing streak only ends when I smarten up and realize that I’m overbalanced again, only against longshots instead of against favorites.

Then there are the losing streaks that I have when I get stale. Just like the dogs, sometimes I need a layoff. If I realize it, I take a break from the track and do more of the other things I like to do. I loaf and go to the shore and walk along the water and throw sticks for the only dog I’m always a winner with - my Black Lab. She never thinks I’m a loser.

After a week or so, I’m rested, alert and ready to hit the handicapping again and I almost always do better. I guess being away from the same-old same-old perks me up. It seems like I have a fresh outlook on handicapping and this is when I’ve come up with some really good handicapping approaches. (I took a break a couple months ago and that’s when I got the idea for the system I’m working on now. All I have to do is stay away from the track long enough to finish it.)

Losing streaks can hurt. Not only do you lose money, but you lose faith in yourself and wonder if you’ll ever cash a ticket again. I think it’s best, when you have a losing streak, to really analyze how you’ve been handicapping and betting. Check whether you’ve been betting too many favorites or too many longshots.

Think back over the last month and try to remember if you’ve been listening to touts or people who say they’re giving you a winner. Have you been trying to use the odds to pick dogs? Have you been putting too much trust in the program picks and not enough in your own handicapping skills? Are you just stale?

Chances are, if you try to think about it rationally, instead of thinking that it’s just luck, you’ll come up with a reason for your losing streak. That’s important, because you can’t do anything about luck, but you can do something about making mistakes. Analyze and find out why you’re losing, then fix it and move on. Losing streaks don’t last, but they can sure feel endless when you’re in one.

Break your losing streak with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.

Free Greyhound Handicapping System: The First System

Sunday, July 27th, 2008

Everyone is looking for a system nowadays. Systems to beat the dog track. Systems to pick lottery numbers. Systems to get their life back together, relieve stress and find a mate. It makes sense, because life is really just a series of systems.

We either make up our own every time we do something, or we use someone else’s knowledge and experience to guide us. Oftentimes, it makes sense to consult someone else who knows more about the subject than we do. After all, we don’t reinvent the wheel every time we drive our car, do we?

There’s one system that I’ll share with you for free. I call it The First System and it’s one of the best ways to make money at the track and in life. Be first. That’s it. It’s as simple as that. Come to think of it, that’s the system that dogs use to win races, isn’t it?

Let me tell you how being first can help you win at the track. Say there’s a dog who’s coming back from a layoff. You and your friends are discussing the dog before the races and no one really knows whether he’s liable to come in or not today.

Someone says that they think they remember that he got hurt in a race a couple of months ago and that’s why he’s had a layoff. Someone else says, “No, he didn’t get hurt. They just gave him a layoff because he was running lousy races because he was tired.” And someone else says, “Well, you guys didn’t notice but “he’s” a “she” and I heard she had a litter of puppies, so no way can she be back in shape yet.”

Someone might be right, but everyone might be wrong in this conversation. There’s a really good chance that none of the people discussing this dog really knows why it had a layoff or what it did before it had the layoff. Now, what if someone - namely you - had downloaded a program the day before and looked at this dog’s record in Greyhound Track Data or old programs?

That person, namely you, would have a much better idea of why the dog had that layoff and would know whether the dog was a good bet today or not. They’d be first to know and they could either keep quiet or share it with their friends. But either way, they’d have a much better chance of making money on the dog.

It’s the same with dogs who win M races and have littermates. If you see a dog who does well in M, take the time to check for littermates and keep an eye on them. The dog doesn’t have to be fantastic, just good. Chances are, at least some of the littermates will be worth betting on also.

How about dogs who break and fade and ship in from another track where the sprint races are shorter than they are at your track? If you know this before the other bettors do, you know what they don’t know. At the shorter distance, the fader may not fade after all. It may just hang on and win. How many people check the length of the track that dogs come from, compared to the track they play?

There are all kinds of situations at the dog track where you can be first to benefit from something if you’re willing to put out a little more effort than most bettors are. Look around you at the track and notice how many people hardly glance at their programs - the programs they grabbed on the way in. How many people are buying lottery tickets or yakking on the phone or watching Fox News?

If you want to win at the track, you have to be better than the average bettor. I learned that the hard way a long time ago. It’s the reason I write articles and sell systems. I figure if I share what I know, it might keep at least some people from making the same mistakes I made when I started out. So keep your eyes open and look for opportunities to use The First System. After all, it’s free.

For serious handicappers. Improve your handicapping skills with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.

Greyhound Handicapping:Friday Night Special - 7/25/08

Friday, July 25th, 2008

A lot of people go to the track on Friday night. I got to thinking that it might be interesting on some Fridays to post a tip from Hyper-Handicapping, a little system I came up with years ago to use when I didn’t feel like - or didn’t have time for - handicapping the program thoroughly. Not only will this give you something to add to your handicapping toolbox, but it will give me more time to go over MY Friday night program. So, without further ado or palaver, here goes.

Three Back Hyper-Handicapping Method - Quick, fun method for casual betting

For each dog in a race, go over ONLY the last three races in their lines - the latest races they’ve had.

Start with the latest race and give them the following points:

For a Win in the latest race, give them 9 pts.

For a 2nd in their latest race, give them 6 pts.

For a 3rd in their latest race, give them 3 pts.

For their second race back, give them the following points:

For a Win in their second race back, give them 6 pts.

For a 2nd in their second race back, give them 4 pts.

For a 3rd in their second race back, give them 1 pt.

Finally, go to their Third race back and give them the following points:

For a Win in their third race back, give them 3 pts.

For a 2nd in their third race back, give them 2 pts.

For a 3rd in their third race back, give them 1 pt.

Add up the points for each dog. You can play the top dog to win or play the top 3 point dogs in quiniela boxes or however your budget will allow. Don’t go nuts with this bet. It’s just a fun, mechanical method that might pay off on a Friday night.

Improve your handicapping skills with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.

Winning At the Dog Track: Are You a Real Handicapper?

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

Not everyone who goes to the dog track is a handicapper. I’ve mentioned before that, in my opinion, most people who bet on the dogs are NOT handicappers. They’re bettors, but there’s a big difference between being a handicapper and betting on the dogs on hunches, with numbers or names or because someone gave you a tip.

If you bet your house number or on dogs named “Ryan” because that’s your son’s name, you’re a bettor, but you’re not a handicapper. If you always bet the 1/2 double because the 1 and 2 boxes are the best boxes at the track, you’re still not a handicapper. “Best” doesn’t mean that the 1 dog or 2 dog will be in the quiniela in this particular race.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not dissing anyone who enjoys a night out at the track and has fun betting on numbers or names or anything else they think is lucky. Heck, I know a couple of people who seem to have luck at this and one guy who is obviously cashing tickets who says he uses Numerology to pick dogs. Whatever floats your boat, I guess, and if you have the money to spend, I guess it’s no worse than dinner and a movie. Possibly cheaper considering the price of popcorn at theaters these days.

But back to handicapping. I think what separates real handicappers from wannabe handicappers is that real handicappers are determined to master the mysteries of picking winners and they put a lot of effort into doing just that. They search out information wherever they can find it: on the Net, in books, from other more experienced handicappers and from owners and trainers if they can manage to find any that will talk to them.

Real handicappers aren’t the guys who loudly proclaim that they had every winner right after the race or the guy who never looks at his program until five minutes before the race goes off. Real handicappers spend a lot of time going over their programs and researching until they begin to understand how to tell if a dog is ready to win. After all, that’s the secret to winning at the track.

There are indications and real handicappers learn to spot them. That’s why the guy next to you who’s been going to the track for 20 years had that 6 dog that you thought looked so bad when it won. He knew that it had run against much better dogs and - even though it hadn’t run in the money in its last two races in the next grade up - it had made an effort and had closed against good dogs in a fast race.

He also knew from researching the dog’s record that it loves the 6 box and had won twice in this grade from that box. This is the kind of thing that real handicappers know. They may or may not buy systems, which is a way of learning from more experienced handicappers, but they’re always looking for anything that will help them get an edge on the other bettors.

They know that the other bettors - not the dogs or the track - are who they’re betting against. All they have to do is be smarter and better at handicapping than the crowd that’s betting their birthdays and they can make money. Some people read books. Some people buy systems. Some people talk to longtime handicappers and pick their brains for free. Some very intelligent people manage to figure it out all by themselves, but I haven’t met many of those in my lifetime.

Handicapping is part science and part art. It takes a special kind of person to get good at it, because of the effort it takes to learn the ropes. It’s not easy, but it’s very rewarding if you get good enough at it to actually make money at the dog track. And that, of course, is a big reason for being a real handicapper.

Improve your handicapping skills with The Marks Method or the Two Key Trifecta System

You can adopt a retired racer. In return for a family of its own, your greyhound will give you lots of love. Hey, you can sit on the couch together and watch the dog races. Who knows? You might even get some inside information from your fast friend.