Let me begin by saying that, of course, this is just my opinion. However, I have 30 years of experience to back it up and it’s made money consistently. That said, of course there are people who disagree with me and think that this method is completely the opposite of the best method. I’ll let you learn about it and then you can take it to the track and see if it works for you.
Most bettors who handicap races, rather than just pick numbers or go by hunches, start by looking for the best dog in the race. Well, that just makes sense, doesn’t it? After all, the best dogs win and winners pay off. So why wouldn’t you want to find the best dog and then bet on it?
Well, the first reason that springs to my mind is that it’s almost impossible – even in stakes races – to determine one best dog. There are almost always at least 2 or 3 dogs with similar stats, any of which could run in the money. How do you pick a “best dog” out of those dogs?
Second, finding a one best dog, even if you could do it, is fine for betting win bets, but what if you want to bet quinielas or trifectas? Betting that dog to come in first in quinielas and trifectas with all 7 other dogs is mighty pricey.
The third reason I don’t like the one best dog method, is that it eliminates 7 dogs, any of whom could surprise. That’s why my handicapping method is exactly the opposite of the one best dog method. I pick winners by eliminating the worst dogs. The dogs I really don’t think are contenders for one or more of several reasons.
When I handicap my program, I try to eliminate at least four dogs in each race. If I can’t do that right off the bat, I don’t play the race. It’s not just because I usually bet 4-dog quiniela boxes, although that’s part of it. It’s also because I’ve found that if I can’t eliminate four dogs, the race is too hard for me to handicap consistently.
Maybe there are better handicappers who can do it the other way, by picking the best dog and just wheeling it. If they can, more power to them, but it doesn’t work for me. I suspect that it doesn’t work for a lot of people, which is why 90% of the crowd at a dog track loses and only 10% of them win. I’d like to think that my method of handicapping is one reason I’m almost almost always in the 10% who walk out of the track with more money than they walk in with.
